If you’re on Twitter and follow a lot of the sports betting community, you may have bumped into “Oddsmaker Adam.” His LinkedIn profile claims he’s an “Oddsmaker/Odds Compiler” at Paradise Games.
A Twitter follower sent us his article exposing much of Oddsmaker Adam’s background. We had been tipped off about Adam’s background before but hadn’t taken the time to track down all his previous aliases like the author of the blog post did. Our only interaction with Adam was when he criticized us for exposing Darin Notaro’s (aka Steve Stevens, the star of CNBC’s show Money Talks) history as a convicted felon. Criticizing us for outing a pick-seller as a convicted telemarketing felon seemed like an odd fight to pick but, for some reason, it bothered Oddsmaker Adam.*
Since the publication of the blog post exposing Adam’s pick-selling background under different aliases, Adam has responded with a lengthy defense of his background.
In his post, Adam claims all of previous pick-selling operations went bad because of bad circumstances and unsavory partners. Leaving aside the particular details of whether he really got sick and whether his mom really busted his pick-selling operation, we’d like to point out the most obvious truth that he never references. And, if you’re contemplating buying picks from this guy, you should consider this reality.
Adam points out how low his living expenses are. He writes:
The truth is for me and my girlfriend to live in Colombia, all we need is $1500 a month. Rent is $400, bills are no more than $150. I make $3,300 a month non-taxed through my one job. If I can save that each month and run a service for others and make money to live off of doing it, why wouldn‚Äôt I do it?
To recap: it’s cheap to live in Colombia (though his LinkedIn claims he lives in the Dominican Republic but regardless). He makes enough at his day job to pay his expenses. So, you see, he just sells picks for $1 per day to make a little extra money.
And here is Adam’s self-reported record:
Week One (9/28-10/5) 17-21-1 +$190 Profit from $3985 Risked
Week Two: (10/6-10/12) 11-12-0 -$125 Loss from $2525 Risked
Week Three: (10/13-10/19) 10-1-0 +$1175 Profit from $1150 Risked
Week Four: (10/20-10/26) 6-2-1 +$510 Profit from $950 Risked
Week Five: (10/27-11/02) 5-3-0 +$190 Profit from $880 Risked
Week Six: (11/03-11/09) 3-5-0 -$440 Profit from $840 Risked
Week Seven: (11/10-11/16) 5-10 -$480 Profit from $1570 Risked
Week Eight: (11/17-11/23) 12-8-1 +$860 Profit from $2220 Risked
Week Nine: (11/24-11/30) 8-5-0 +$510 Profit from $1415 Risked
Week Ten: (12/01 – 12/07) 4-2-0 +$300 Profit from $690 Risked
Regular Bets: 81-69 +$2690 Profit from $16215 Risked for an ROI of 16.5%.
Public Burials: 12-3 +$970 Profit from $1760 Risked for an ROI of 61.3%.
In less than three months, a $100 bettor is up $3,660** according to Adam’s own bookkeeping.
Now, let’s assume Adam’s record-keeping is legitimate, he’d also be up ~$3,660 if he was betting only $100 on each of his recommended plays. Surely, though, a guy who has such a long-term winning record and who is located offshore would be betting more than a measly $100 on each of his own picks, right?
If he is just a dime bettor (betting $1,000 per play), he’d be up a healthy $36,660 in just a matter of months. That’s about as much as he makes in a full year at his day job. And that’s with a relatively small $1,000 per play. If he’s been winning long-term and his bankroll is growing accordingly, surely he’d be betting more than that – and winning even more.
Which begs the obvious question: If a guy is a long-term winner at betting on sports and he lives offshore and can bet legally at a lot more outs than anyone in the United States, why in the world would he need to sell picks for $1 a day? You likely know the answer.
* Via Twitter, Oddsmaker Adam asked us to publish the private messages he sent us following his argument with us over the Darin Notaro story. Ordinarily, we don’t publish private messages people send us since, when people opt to send a private message rather than a public one, we assume they want those messages to be private. But, since he asked, below are the private messages he sent us before unfollowing our Twitter account. These private messages were sent on August 8th in follow-up to public tweets he sent on July 31st (which he subsequently deleted) where he expressed his views that a) by writing about Notaro’s felonious past, our reporting had “gone too far,” and b) since we (probably) bet online, our criticism of Notaro was like one speeding motorist calling the police on another speeding motorist.
“I owe you an apology for my rant a week ago. Been thinking about things for a bit now and realize how dumb what I said came off as. I grew up in a town of 2,000 people, finished high school in a city of 2 million where for three years everyone did things to show how¬†they were better than each other and did whatever it took to jump on other people. I guess I am always quick to take a side in things like this. Obviously I took the wrong side and took things completely out of context. I am sorry for blowing up your time line, and I am sure¬†add to your frustration over the subject. I am a little on the outside looking it, so I can’t fully relate to how annoying it must be to have pieces of trash like this keep making their mark on the industry. The more I looked into your website, the more respect I have for you
** Corrected from previous version thanks to Twitter tip.