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Darren Rovell, sports business reporter for CNBC, is a Twitter superstar. He has more than 175,000 followers and is one of the most re-tweeted tweeters in the business.

Well, the clever marketing guys at BetOnline.com have rolled out a new Super Bowl prop bet that plays on Rovell’s Twitter celebrity status. They have set the over/under on the number of Rovell tweets during Super Bowl Sunday at 149.5.

Now, like with many novelty prop bets, you can find an edge if you do your homework. And we did the homework. Rovell is a successful and prolific tweeter, no doubt. But we think 149.5 is a very high number and the under offers tremendous value.

In the month of January, Rovell tweeted 1,374 times. That’s an average of 44 tweets per day. On conference championship Sunday, the second biggest day of the NFL calendar, Rovell tweeted just 39 times. Over the past year, we can’t find a single day where Rovell tweeted more than 100 times (let alone 150 times). So, for the ‘over’ to hit, Rovell would have to increase his recent average tweet per day rate by about 4 times.

Keep in mind, Rovell has previously expressed concern over clogging up people’s timeline (a reason he often replies to people using direct messages.) And he’s tipped his hand with his view of this over/under by responding to BetOnline.com’s prop bet in, what else, a tweet:

We read ‘come on’ as shock at how high that number is. Oh, and by the way, remember that Rovell has a real job that will almost certainly be taking up a huge portion of his Super Bowl Sunday.

Given all these factors, the ‘under’ on the Darren Rovell twitter prop is a stone cold lock. Take it to the bank. Well, unless Richard Deitsch and Rovell stumble into a Twitter fight.┬áThat could blow up our analysis.




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