We’re stil 48 hours away from the presidential election. But it’s already over before voting even started, according to Irish bookmaker Paddy Power.
Paddy Power, Europe’s largest bookmaker and a company always happy to find new ways to generate publicity, is paying out over $650,000 in bets on President Obama to win reelection. At Paddy Power, Obama is now 1/4 which implies he has an 80% chance to win.
For comparison sake, Pinnacle and 5Dimes’s odds have Obama a 76% likely to win, BetFair has Obama at 77% and Intrade has Obama at just 64.3%.
FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, meanwhile, has Obama’s reelection chances at 85%. Silver, a stat geek, ¬†created a media stir earlier in the week when, in response to criticism from MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough, he offered to bet the former Congressman and current television host $1,000 on who would win the election. Scarborough never responded.
Paddy Power has already generated publicity from this stunt and will certainly generate more between now and election day. But for this stunt to actually cost the bookmaker money, Romney will have to win. And the odds of that are low. . . and falling.