Hockey bettors know about the grand salami. It’s a nightly prop bet that allows bettors to wager on how many goals will be scored in all of that night’s games combined. The funny part: almost no one bets on hockey.
It seemed strange to us that this kind of prop bet was offered on hockey but not on football – a sport everyone bets on. So, a couple weeks ago, we tweeted the following:
Well, Cantor Gaming has responded. This morning, Cantor, which is the fastest growing sports book operator in Nevada, will introduce the first-ever NFL grand salami. The total for this week’s 16 games: 732.5. Of course, that’s an average of 45.7 points per game. Now, if you simply added up all the totals for this week’s games, you come up with 735.5 points. So, the grand salami total is slightly lower than the sum of all the games.
Now let’s put this first-ever weekly total in context. Over the past 160 weeks of NFL action, the average amount of points scored across all games is 688 points. That’s well below this week’s total of 735.5. But, of course, the NFL has changed substantially over the past decade. So let’s narrow the focus a bit.
Over the past 32 weeks of regular season action, the average amount of points scored across all games is 716.5 points. That’s also considerably below the 735.5 over/under. And of the past 32 weeks, 20 went under 735.5 and just 12 went over. So the longer-term trend and the medium-term trend supports betting the under 735.5.
But then you look at this season’s first two weeks of replacement ref action where week 1 had 791 points (an easy over) and week 2 had 765 points (another over.) Now, of course, two weeks ia very small sample size. If you’re convinced that the replacement referees’ tendency to call pass interference on every play will continue, the over looks appealing. But if you think scoring will revert to what the league has experience over the past couple years, there’s significant value on the under.