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Aaron Rodgers and the Packers roll into one of the loudest venues in the NFL tonight – CenturyLink Field – to take on the Seattle Seahawks. Green Bay is a 3 point favorite. Both teams are 1-1 (straight up and against the spread) and are coming off of impressive wins last week. The total for the game is 44 points, a number that has been bet down significantly since opening at 46.5.

When Cantor Gaming released lines for all games prior to the season, this line was set at Packers -6. A dominant Seahawks win in week two combined with an early Packers loss has driven the spread down to a field goal.

This is the second straight home game for the Seahawks and the second straight time they are home dogs. Over the last three years, the Seahawks are 11-5 ATS at home as an underdog, including last last week’s blowout win against the Dallas Cowboys. Rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has been formidable in his first two games, throwing for 304 yards with two touchdowns and 1 interception. The Seahawks defense, though, has been the most impressive surprise of this team; in the last two weeks, they allowed only 43 & 49 yards of rushing against the Cardinals and Cowboys respectively.

Aaron Rodgers has played well  throughout his career as a road favorite with a 12-9-0 record against the spread. He’s played even better coming off of a win, as Rodgers has a 24-16-2 ATS record when the Packers have won the previous week. Greg Jennings, one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, is questionable to return to the Packers offensive tonight, but signs suggest he’ll play.

Over Aaron Rodgers’ career, the Packers have gone over the total in 53.8% of games. One of the contributing factors to the total’s downward move may have been the threat of inclement weather. But today’s weather reports show perfect football weather, 53 degrees and partly cloudy.

Some Notes:

  • Aaron Rodgers is 19-13-1 ATS on the road
  • The last time Aaron Rodgers played the Seahawks, the Packers won (and covered the 13.5 spread) in a 48-10 win.
  • Since 1988, the Seahawks have gone 39-30-1 ATS when home dogs.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 4-2-0 ATS when playing Monday Night Football.
  • The Seahawks are 7-2-1 ATS when playing at home on a Monday night.

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