Last year, the Green Bay Packers finished the year 15-1. This year, they’re already 0-1.
In their home opener against the 49ers, the Packers were a 6 point favorite. And they lost outright 30-22. The Bears, meanwhile, cruised to an easy win over the Colts 41-21 (in a game where the Bears closed as 10 point favorites).
Before the preseason began, Cantor Gaming made the Packers a 7.5 point favorite against the Bears. But after the Packers opening loss and the impressive start for the Bears, the line reopened at Packers -5.5. The line has bounced around a bit since the opening, getting as low as -4 and as high as -6 (both as the LVH in Vegas).
The total opened at 49.5 at most books and has since been bet up to 51.5. This comes on the heels of 9 of the 16 week 1 games going over the total and 5 teams scoring more than 40 points in their opening game (a record for the NFL). But, before you rush out to bet the over in tonight’s game, consider this:
Mid-week games have traditionally gone under the total. Of course, that could be for a number of reasons. First, the public loves to bet the over which may lead oddsmakers to shade the line higher for these nationally televised games as they draw lots of action. Second, that NFL teams are playing these games on 3 days rest could lead to lower-than-expected scoring. Or, of course, given we’re dealing with a relatively small sample size (127 games), this could be nothing more than randomness.
* Jay Cutler is 31-45-2 ATS and 16-20 ATS as an underdog and he’s 14-21-1 ATS on the road.
* Aaron Rodgers is 38-25-2 ATS, 29-20-1 as a favorite and 18-12 at home.
* Aaron Rodgers is 6-2 ATS in his career against the Bears and 7 of those 8 games went under the total