Yesterday, the world stopped momentarily when news broke that Peyton Manning was going to the Denver Broncos. The Broncos were a long shot to land #18 so, once the news broke, sports books scrambled to adjust NFL futures lines.
Remarkably, the Broncos dropped from 50:1 to win the Super Bowl to 10:1. And now, they are as low as 7:1 at some books. That, of course, is a ridiculous overreaction to the Peyton Manning signing. But is there a way to profit from this overreaction?
Bovada quickly rolled out Peyton Manning prop¬†bets¬†within hours of the news breaking. One of the prop bets is particularly surprising:
Before Peyton Manning signed, the Broncos 2012 win total was 8.5 with the under heavily juiced at -210. In other words, the sharp oddsmakers at 5Dimes expected the Broncos to win less than 8 games. Now, with the addition of a post-neck surgery Peyton Manning, the line is 10.
That line is too damn high. And here are 5 reasons why:
1.¬†By the time next season starts, Peyton Manning will be 500+ days removed from his last NFL game. And in between that start and his first start in Denver, he’s had a number of neck surgeries. So questions remain as to just how healthy Peyton Manning will be next year. Oh and remember that a healthy Manning didn’t lead the 2011 Colts to more than 10 wins (they finished 10-6).
2.¬†The 2011 Broncos went 8-8. Their 8 victories came by a combined 39 points which means their average winning margin was 4.8 points. Less than one score. They beat one playoff team all year (the Bengals) and did so at home by 2 points.
3.¬†Last year’s Broncos team lost 8 games by a combined margin of 130 points; that’s an average of 16 points a game. So, when they won, they won by one score. When they lost, they got whipped. That doesn’t bode well for next year. Oh, and the Broncos finished the year ranked 24th in Football Outsiders DVOA rating.
4.¬†Next year’s Broncos schedule is brutal. They will play 7 teams that made the playoffs last year. They’ll have to go on the road to play the Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, Falcons and Panthers. That is going to be among the most difficult schedules in all of football.
5.¬†Bet at Lucky’s has released an over/under on the Broncos win total next year: 8.5. While that line might be a little low, 10 is too high and Bet at Lucky’s line confirms that Bovada’s line is just too damn high.
Look, Peyton Manning is an enormous upgrade over Tebow. The Colts miserable 2011 season shows just how valuable he is to any team. But his health is a question mark. And the Broncos schedule is a challenge. At this point, it seems far more likely that the Broncos will win 9 games than 11 so betting under 10 seems pretty attractive.