SuperContest-Graphic-week3
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This is the week 3 installment of our foray into the LVH Supercontest using our own proprietary, predictive models. Each week we run all the games and play the best results — whether we like them or not.  This week really shows our dedication and willingness to wholeheartedly follow a model.

After a strong week 1 performance of 4-1, we entered week 2 tied for 11th place out of 745. Our model’s best play of the week (Pats -13.5) lost outright, and a struggling Jets offense failed to cover against the Steelers.  The Bills and Chargers covered easily while the Buccaneers teased us by making what looked like a surefire cover come down to a half-point win giving us a 3-2 week. While we weren’t overjoyed with the performance, we’re still in a good spot; tied (with about 50 teams) for 16th place with 7 points.

Last Week’s Results:

A quick glance at how our plays fared by confidence (note: we didn’t rank week 1 on a confidence scale):

  • 5 Brain Confidence: 0-1-0
  • 4 Brain Confidence: n/a
  • 3 Brain Confidence: 1-0-0
  • 2 Brain Confidence: 2-1-0
  • 1 Brain Confidence: n/a
  • Just Missed The Cut Plays: 4-2-0

This week is a textbook example of betting bad numbers. SuperContest lines are released every Wednesday, and, as a result, the lines are often stale compared to game time lines. We’ve opted to trust our model completely, though, and so we disregard the line value offered in the SuperContest’s sometimes stale lines. With that word of caution, here our week 3 selections (and we expect these to run counter to most players in the contest).

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The SuperContest line has the visiting Steelers -4. As of Friday, this line has moved down to Steelers -3.5. Our model still says to lay the four points so let’s hope that the Raiders can find a way to lose for us like they did in week 1.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In what may just be the least played side of the week, Tampa Bay rolls into Dallas with a 2-0 ATS record. In the  The LVH contest, the Buccaneers are +7. The line has since moved a point and a half as you can find the Bucs + 8.5. The model still shows this as our number 2 play for the week, so we are taking them regardless of the poor line value.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

 

New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Finally , a game where with line value in the right direction. In the battle of two winless teams, the Chiefs visit the Superdome getting 8.5 points. This line has now since moved New Orleans -9. Personally, we don’t often like big favorites but our model has the Saints winning handily so it’s one of our 5 SuperContest plays.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

 

Chicago Bears vs St. Louis Rams

The Rams have sneakily covered both of their games this year and head to Chicago to face a Matt Forte-less Bears team. Our model likes the Rams +7.5 points.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Surprisingly, the Cardinals have come out on top in 9 of their last 11 games (going 9-2 ATS as well) including a win and cover against the Eagles last year. The LVH SuperContest has the line at Eagles -4, but has been bet down to -3 since. Another case of bad line value, but the model likes the Eagles laying 4 so we’re abiding.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

JUST MISSED THE CUT

While our model like the 5 above plays the most, it also chose the following as serviceable plays for the week (in order of confidence):

  • 49ers -7
  • Lions -3.5
  • Dolphins +3
  • Packers -3

Make sure to check back next week for a week 2 recap and our week 3 plays. Also be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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