Supercontest-Week-2
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Last year we created an NFL model that placed us just outside of the money in the SuperContest, the world’s largest NFL Handicapping Contest. This year we’ve tweaked the system and are sharing each week’s picks with you.

Last week we headed into the Monday night games with a 3-0 record thanks to the Falcons, Bucs and Broncos with the Ravens & The Raiders our two plays of the night. We were wacko for Flacco as the Ravens cruised, but watched our hopes and dreams of a perfect week roll in the Oakland A’s base-path thanks to long snapper Travis Goethel. We ended the week 4-1, tied for 11th place.  Not too shabby.

This week’ we had a good selection of games that the model was confident in, more-so than last week even.   Note: We run two different models, gathering two different results that we decipher into an overall confidence level.  Here are our plays for week 2:

New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals

Both of our models showed confidence in the Pats laying 13.5, more confidence than we’ve actually ever seen before. Our database has a good bit of data on Kevin Kolb, so we feel comfortable with this play.

Play

Model Confidence Level

San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans

Our second play of the week was the team that damned us a week earlier.  The confidence in both models were strong, nearly as strong as our best play last week. Note: We ran models presuming that Jake Locker is under center for the Titans.  Proceed with caution if not.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Being based in Buffalo, we tend to shy away from betting on the hometown favorite because our heart has been broken too many times. However, we are thinking with computers, not brains — and both models like the Bills more than covering in this slapfight.

Play

Model Confidence Level

New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Which Mark Sanchez will show up this weekend? The 3 TD passing Sanchez from last week? Or the touchdown-less QB we saw in pre-season. Well, our models are confident that not only will the Jets cover, but if it had to set a line  – it would only be +4. Let’s hope so.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

Last week we banked a Supercontest win on the Bucs outright versus the Panthers. The model likes them again getting more than a Touchdown at the Giants. Let’s hope we see a repeat performance instead of the inane swashbuckling suckage that we saw on the field last year.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Just Missed The Cut

While our models like the 5 above plays the most, they also chose the following as serviceable plays for the week (in order of confidence):

  • Colts +1
  • Bears +6 (whew!)
  • Rams +3
  • Cowboys -3
  • Falcons -3
  • 49ers -6.5

Make sure to check back next week for a week 2 recap and our week 3 plays. Also be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for more great content!

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