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As you could probably tell from our coverage, we’re big fans of the LVH SuperContest (formerly Hilton SuperContest.) Last year, we tasked ourselves with the duty of creating a predictive model that would allow us to skyrocket up the charts so we could take home the $310,000 first place prize. Well, it didn’t happen. Our team (WM Index) finished 48-35-2 with 49 points — just two points out of the money as we tied for 49th place out of 510 contestants.

The good news: we learned quite a bit during the process.  As the season progressed, we made drastic improvements to our model constantly adding new data in and re-testing all weeks as we experimented to find the best mix. The final model that we used finished strong —  going 21-13-1 (61.7%) over the last 6 weeks as we jumped from 27-22-1 (55.1%) in week 11 to finish at 48-35-1 (57.8%.) Yes, that’s a small sample size and it would be unwise to read too much into that but it was solid progress.

We think that we’ve made even more significant improvements over the off-season and have our model primed to place at this year’s contest — and we want to share it with you, our loyal readers. This year, we will be releasing each of our SuperContest plays along with a confidence score for each — early Saturday morning (after the SuperContest deadline) at no charge of course.

Having to choose 5 games every single week can be challenging.  Many weeks last year we only had 2 or 3 plays with strong confidence levels but were forced to turn in the full 5. Additionally, in some weeks we actually had more than 5 plays, but had to crop down our picks to hit that magic number. By opening up our data and showing our confidence score we hope to show everyone just how tough the SuperContest really is.

So every Saturday this year, check the blog to see our list of SuperContest plays.

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