Road-To-The-Super-Bowl
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We are analyzing Super Bowl and Conference values from here until the Super Bowl to help you find keep you informed and to expose any perceived edges.  We’ll also be relying on Football Outsiders, one of the most essential tools for the modern day football bettor.

DIVISIONAL ROUND –  ODDS TO WIN THE AFC TITLE

On the AFC side of things it’s pretty much a two horse race when it comes to potential winners, the Pats and the Broncos. Football Outsiders gives a minuscule edge to the Broncos (41.4% to win AFC) over the Pats (40.9% to win AFC). No perceived value can be extracted from the implied win %’s. Football Outsiders give the Ravens a better chance to win the AFC (9.9%) than the Texans (7.8%), something to consider if your’e feeling lucky.

TeamWeek 15Week 16Week 17Wild CardDivisionalDivisional Implied Win ProbabilityWeekly Win % Change
Denver Broncos27520015510010050%0%
New England Patriots12020018512513043.48%-1%
Houston Texans27520024070075011.76%-1%
Baltimore Ravens88514001000120082510.81%3%
Cincinnati Bengals3500250020002200
Indianapolis Colts2200280028002200
Pittsburgh Steelers15002500-
New York Jets12500-
Buffalo Bills33000-
Miami Dolphins33000-
San Diego Chargers33000-

DIVISIONAL ROUND –  ODDS TO WIN THE NFC TITLE

Each week we’ve seen the Seahawks odds improve steadily. If you aren’t believers of the Falcons, Football Outsiders gives reason to look at the Seahawks. FO gives the ‘Hawks a 55.2% chance to beat the Falcons and a 30% chance to win the NFC. Those predications are better odds than the implied probability at +300 25% implied win probability). Football Outsiders also gives the 49ers a slightly better chance to win the NFC (31.5%)than their odds imply (30.77%).
TeamWeek 15Week 16Week 17Wild CardDivisionalDivisional Implied Win ProbabilityWeekly Win % Change
San Francisco 49ers25022527520022530.77%-2.56%
Atlanta Falcons35027525025025028.57%0.00%
Green Bay Packers30027522532530025%1.47%
Seattle Seahawks82580040050030025%8.33%
Washington Redskins17501400900500
Minnesota Vikings9000800040001800
Dallas Cowboys230016002400--
Chicago Bears170040002800--
New York Giants60014004200--
St Louis Rams15000-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers18000-

DIVISIONAL ROUND –  ODDS TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL

Football Outsiders has both the Broncos (24.3% chance of a Super Bowl win) and Patriots (23.6%)  square atop the leaders to win the Lombardi, and are nearly 10% more likely than the closest NFC team (Seahawks – 15.6%). There’s a bit of perceived value on the Patriots, Seahawks and 49ers (15.2% to win SB according to FO.)

TeamWeek 15Week 16Week 17Wild CardDivisionalDivisional Implied Win ProbabilityDivisional Win % Change
Denver Broncos60040035022525028.57%-2.20%
New England Patriots30050045040035022.22%2.22%
San Francisco 49ers60045060060062513.79%-0.50%
Green Bay Packers70060060082565013.33%2.52%
Seattle Seahawks18001400650110067512.90%4.57%
Atlanta Falcons90060065075070012.50%0.74%
Baltimore Ravens230033002000240015506.06%2.06%
Houston Texans600500650150016005.88%-0.37%
Washington Redskins4000250016501000
Minnesota Vikings225001000070003500
Cincinnati Bengals8000500040004500
Indianapolis Colts5000660057504500
Dallas Cowboys450033003000-
Chicago Bears400066004500-
New York Giants140020007000-
Pittsburgh Steelers33004000--
New York Jets30000--
St Louis Rams40000-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers50000-
Buffalo Bills100000-
Miami Dolphins100000-
San Diego Chargers100000-

Week 15 odds are courtesy of 5Dimes, week 16, 17, Wild Card & Divisional odds are courtesy of BetOnline.

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