The real refs are back, whew. Hey Jimmy Connors, its safe to bet again! Tonight the Baltimore Ravens (2-1 straight up & 2-1 against the spread) invite the Cleveland Browns (0-3 SU & 1-1-1 ATS) into M&T Bank Stadium for a divisional Thursday Night Football showdown.
Tonight’s game is the second straight home game for the Ravens. Though failing to cover, the Ravens scored a nice win against the New England Patriots on Sunday night. The Cleveland Browns are coming off of a tough home loss Sunday against Buffalo where they failed to cover. The line for tonight’s game has the Ravens laying a whopping 12 points with a total of 44. So far this season the Ravens have gone over in all three games, while the Browns have gone over once.
In 7 games where Joe Flacco has been more than a 12 point favorite the Ravens have gone 4-3 ATS. Flacco has traditionally played well against the Browns with a lifetime record of 6-2 ATS. However when Flacco has played the Browns at home he sports a 2-2 ATS result. Joe Haden, arguably the Browns best defensive player, will be on the sideline finishing out the last portion of a 4 game suspension for PEDs. Haden’s (alleged) drug-infused absence should benefit both the Ravens and the over. Without Haden this year the Browns have been the 6th worst team against the pass, allowing 269 yards through the air.
The good news for Cleveland is that historically teams who’ve been getting between 10 and 13 points (but not including those key numbers) have covered 54.8% of the time. After a miserable week one, Brandon Weeden, Browns rookie QB, has looked serviceable with 3 TDs/2INTs and 559 yards — bringing his yards per game average up to 225.7. Fellow rookie Trent Richardson has shaken off some of the post-surgery rust as well. After a non-existent week one, he has scored in the last two games and is up to 240 total yards of offense on the year.
This isn’t your standard Ravens D. This year Baltimore has given up an average of 111.7 yards of rushing in each game. The Ravens pass defense hasn’t been much better either. Baltimore comes into this game with the 5th worst defense against the pass, giving up 289.7 yards per game.
In 32 home games, Flacco has gone under in 18 games (56.3% of the time). With the loss of Terrell Suggs, the Ravens defense has allowed an average of 22.3 points per game, but their offense has stepped it up as they’ve had the 2nd highest output in the NFL with 32.7 points per game. The Browns on the other hand have only scored 19 points per game so far this year while allowing 24. At the time of this article, 81% of WagerMinds bettors are on the under, but these defenses have been among the worst in the NFL so far this year.
- When there has been a home favorite in Thursday games they’ve covered 59.5% of the time
- TNF games have gone under 56.2% of the time.
- Last year the Browns only went over in 4 games.
- Joe Flacco is 17-12 ATS (58.6%) when playing at home.