This is the week 4 installment of our foray into the LVH Supercontest using our own proprietary, predictive models. Each week we run all the games and play the best results — whether we like them or not. A new week couldn’t come soon enough for our model plays as it laid an egg last week. We had our first losing week with a putrid 1-4-0 record (8-7-0 this year). It was looking like we where going to be  0-5-0, but the Tampa Bay Coverneers kicked a FG in the last two minutes to cover yet again. The machine has milked Tampa this year with 3 supercontest wins coming by way of the Bucs.  We are now at an 8-7-0 record and are in dire need of a 5-0-0 week to get back in the mix.

We are determined to turn things around this week and also are removing the Cardinals from the board. The model had issues last year, and this year  in two games the plays picked have lost by 15+ points when Kolb is at the helm. So for now, we aren’t going to look at Cardinals games. Sorry redbirds.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

Ouch. Here’s to a better week.

San Diego at Kansas City

While the Chargers flat out stunk last week while the Chiefs knocked off the Saints, the model simply doesn’t care. The Chargers are the most confident play on the week. The LVH contest line is Chargers +1, which has since moved the other way as the Chargers are now -1. The machine agrees:

Play

 Chargers:  +1

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Oakland at Denver

Again, the model wasn’t impressed with the Raiders win over Pittsburgh or the Broncos beatdown by the Texans. The model likes the Broncos, so the model gets the Broncos.

Play

Broncos -6.5

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Tenessee at Houston

The model has gone with some fairly sizable favorites this year, and lost nearly each time. This is another double digit favorite that the model has selected. As many of you know, we hate double digit favoriates, but we made a pact this year to listen to sicence, and so we shall:

Play

Houston -12

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Carolina at Atlanta

The most surprising thing about Atlanta this year may just be its defense. Can Cam Newton will by them with the Panthers getting 7 this week? The computer says no. Not going to happen. Let’s hope so: Falcons: -7.

Play

Falcons: -7

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

San Francisco at New York Jets

Sure the 49ers lost to the lowly Vikings last week. And yes the Jets have won two in a row. But can Shonn Green and Bilal Powell be a match for anything other than auto-correct? The machine isn’t impressed and likes the Harbaugh fueled 49ers (who’ve stayed east coast) to win and cover.

Play

49ers -4

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

JUST MISSED THE CUT

While our model like the 5 above plays the most, it also chose the following as serviceable plays for the week (in order of confidence):

• Ravens -12
• Buccaneers -3
• Dolphins +6.5
• Bears +3.5
• Patriots -4
• Rams +2.5

Make sure to check back next week for a week 4 recap and our week 5 plays. Also be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.