Clayton-AFC-PRedictions
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John Clayton, ESPN’s resident NFL nerd, has released his 2012-2013 AFC win projections.  Just how to they stack up against bookmakers?  Well, here’s a division by division look with game differentials to show where Clayton would be putting his cash (if he was a betting man of course):

AFC East

While the East has had some big additions with the likes of Tebow and Super Mario, Clayton predicts the usual outcome: The Patriots clinch.  However, Clayton really dislikes the Dolphins this year and has the Dolphins only winning 4 games while the current line is 7.5.  This is the largest differential between Vegas and Clayton on the board … by far:

AFC East Clayton Wins Total Wins Line Differential
New England Patriots 12 12 0
Buffalo Bills 9 7 +2
New York Jets 8 8.5 -.5
Miami Dolphins 4 7.5 -3.5

AFC North

Much like bookmakers, Clayton has the North being very close.  He has both the Steelers and the Ravens hitting their exact win totals on the nose — with the Bengals only off by a half game.  He doesn’t like the new look Browns though, having them only winning 4 games throughout the year:

AFC North Clayton Wins Total Wins Line Differential
Cincinnati Bengals 8 7.5 +.5
Cleveland Browns 4 5.5 -1.5
Baltimore Ravens 10 10 0
Pittsburgh Steelers 10 10 0

AFC South

Just how will the AFC South end up without Peyton Manning?  About the same as last year –  at least in Clayton’s eyes.  The biggest differential goes to the Colts who Clayton thinks will under-perform against win total:

AFC South Clayton Wins Total Wins Line Differential
Houston Texans 10 10 0
Tennesse Titans 8 7 +1
Jacksonville Jaguars 6 5.5 +.5
Indianapolis Colts 4 5.5 -1.5

AFC West

The Raiders need to win, and need to win soon since traded for Carson Palmer last year.  Clayton isn’t bullish on the Raiders.  Indeed, the Raiders are Clayton’s second biggest differential between the Vegas line and his prediction: Clayton has Oakland winning just 5 games while the line is 7.  He also might be one of the only people who has the Broncos winning 10.

AFC West Clayton Wins Total Wins Line Differential
Denver Broncos 10 9.5 +.5
San Diego Chargers 9 9 0
Kansas City Chiefs 7 8 -1
Oakland Raiders 5 7 -2

All lines courtesy of 5Dimes. See Clayton’s predictions at ESPN.

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