John Clayton, ESPN’s resident NFL nerd, has released his 2012-2013 AFC win projections.  Just how to they stack up against bookmakers?  Well, here’s a division by division look with game differentials to show where Clayton would be putting his cash (if he was a betting man of course):

AFC East

While the East has had some big additions with the likes of Tebow and Super Mario, Clayton predicts the usual outcome: The Patriots clinch.  However, Clayton really dislikes the Dolphins this year and has the Dolphins only winning 4 games while the current line is 7.5.  This is the largest differential between Vegas and Clayton on the board … by far:

AFC North

Much like bookmakers, Clayton has the North being very close.  He has both the Steelers and the Ravens hitting their exact win totals on the nose — with the Bengals only off by a half game.  He doesn’t like the new look Browns though, having them only winning 4 games throughout the year:

AFC South

Just how will the AFC South end up without Peyton Manning?  About the same as last year –  at least in Clayton’s eyes.  The biggest differential goes to the Colts who Clayton thinks will under-perform against win total:

AFC West

The Raiders need to win, and need to win soon since traded for Carson Palmer last year.  Clayton isn’t bullish on the Raiders.  Indeed, the Raiders are Clayton’s second biggest differential between the Vegas line and his prediction: Clayton has Oakland winning just 5 games while the line is 7.  He also might be one of the only people who has the Broncos winning 10.

All lines courtesy of 5Dimes. See Clayton’s predictions at ESPN.