John Clayton, ESPN’s resident NFL nerd, has released his 2012-2013 AFC win projections. ¬†Just how to they stack up against bookmakers? ¬†Well, here’s a division by division look with game differentials to show where Clayton would be putting his cash (if he was a betting man of course):
While the East has had some big additions with the likes of Tebow and Super Mario, Clayton predicts the usual outcome: The Patriots clinch. ¬†However, Clayton really dislikes the Dolphins this year and has the Dolphins only winning 4 games while the current line is 7.5. ¬†This is the largest differential between Vegas and Clayton on the board … by far:
|AFC East||Clayton Wins||Total Wins Line||Differential|
|New England Patriots||12||12||0|
|New York Jets||8||8.5||-.5|
Much like bookmakers, Clayton has the North being very close. ¬†He has both the Steelers and the Ravens hitting their exact win totals on the nose — with the Bengals only off by a half game. ¬†He doesn’t like the new look Browns though, having them only winning 4 games throughout the year:
|AFC North||Clayton Wins||Total Wins Line||Differential|
Just how will the AFC South end up without Peyton Manning? ¬†About the same as last year – ¬†at least in Clayton’s eyes. ¬†The biggest differential goes to the Colts who Clayton thinks will under-perform¬†against win total:
|AFC South||Clayton Wins||Total Wins Line||Differential|
The Raiders need to win, and need to win soon since traded for Carson Palmer last year. ¬†Clayton isn’t bullish on the Raiders. ¬†Indeed, the Raiders are Clayton’s second biggest differential between the Vegas line and his prediction: Clayton has Oakland winning just 5 games while the line is 7. ¬†He also might be one of the only people who has the Broncos winning 10.
|AFC West||Clayton Wins||Total Wins Line||Differential|
|San Diego Chargers||9||9||0|
|Kansas City Chiefs||7||8||-1|
All lines courtesy of 5Dimes. See Clayton’s predictions at ESPN.