Back in May Cantor released the early line for tonight’s Chargers-Broncos game at San Diego -2.5. Last’s week’s look-ahead line matched the two-and-a-half point spread and earlier this week the game opened at that mark. ¬† Steady as can be, right? ¬†Well, since opening, the line has been extremely¬†temperamental to say the least. After the Chargers -2.5 ¬†open, the line dropped as far as Broncos -1 and has since settled back on the Broncos +1. The total has been rather¬†volatile¬†as well — opening at 50, hitting 51 before being ¬†bet down to the 47-47.5 range.
The Chargers (3-2 ATS) have their second night game in a row as Peyton¬†Manning¬†and the Broncos (203 ATS) roll into Qualcomm. Both the Brocs and the Bolts went over the total in 3 of their five games this year.. Since 1988,¬†MNF home teams have gone 197-192-8 ATS since 1988, and¬†MNF¬†favorites¬†have gone 206-184-8 ATS.
Ryan Matthews finally lived up to his hype last game with 139 all-around yards and a touchdown – a well needed spark for the Chargers. The San Diego offense has been¬†disappointing¬†so far, only posting up 334.8 yards/game against some of the league’s worst defenses ( Oakland,¬†Tennessee¬† New Orleans.) Matthews and the Chargers should be happy to face off against a Broncos defense that is 21st against the run — allowing 120.2 rushing yards a game. The Chargers on the other hand have showed the ability to stop the run cold, allowing only 74 yards/game.
In the air, the roles have been reversed this season. The Chargers have the 23rd ranked pass defense (273.4 yards/game), while Champ Bailey and the Broncos come in as the 10th best pass defense (235.8 yards/game.) Despite the Broncos¬†losing¬†record, they’ve been able to move the ball quite well. Denver averages 388.4 yards/game and should rely on an air attack if they want to pull off a win.
Peyton Manning has been Mr. Monday Night throughout his career with an 10-4 ATS record on MNF. Philip Rivers has played well on Mondays as well with a 5-4 record against the spread. The Chargers have been a team that have given Peyton trouble throughout his career; he’s just 3-6 ATS against the Bolts historically. Even before Manning arrived in Denver, Rivers has been merciless against the Broncos, sporting a 8-3-2 ATS record against the division rival.
- As a home¬†favorite¬†Rivers has gone 27-20 ATS lifetime
- Coming off of a loss, Manning has gone 27-33-2 ATS
- When Peyton Manning has been an underdog of 3 points or less, he’s gone 13-2-1 ATS