Broncos-Chargers
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Back in May Cantor released the early line for tonight’s Chargers-Broncos game at San Diego -2.5. Last’s week’s look-ahead line matched the two-and-a-half point spread and earlier this week the game opened at that mark.   Steady as can be, right?  Well, since opening, the line has been extremely temperamental to say the least. After the Chargers -2.5  open, the line dropped as far as Broncos -1 and has since settled back on the Broncos +1. The total has been rather volatile as well — opening at 50, hitting 51 before being  bet down to the 47-47.5 range.

The Chargers (3-2 ATS) have their second night game in a row as Peyton Manning and the Broncos (203 ATS) roll into Qualcomm. Both the Brocs and the Bolts went over the total in 3 of their five games this year.. Since 1988, MNF home teams have gone 197-192-8 ATS since 1988, and MNF favorites have gone 206-184-8 ATS.

Ryan Matthews finally lived up to his hype last game with 139 all-around yards and a touchdown – a well needed spark for the Chargers. The San Diego offense has been disappointing so far, only posting up 334.8 yards/game against some of the league’s worst defenses ( Oakland, Tennessee  New Orleans.) Matthews and the Chargers should be happy to face off against a Broncos defense that is 21st against the run — allowing 120.2 rushing yards a game. The Chargers on the other hand have showed the ability to stop the run cold, allowing only 74 yards/game.

In the air, the roles have been reversed this season. The Chargers have the 23rd ranked pass defense (273.4 yards/game), while Champ Bailey and the Broncos come in as the 10th best pass defense (235.8 yards/game.) Despite the Broncos losing record, they’ve been able to move the ball quite well. Denver averages 388.4 yards/game and should rely on an air attack if they want to pull off a win.

Peyton Manning has been Mr. Monday Night throughout his career with an 10-4 ATS record on MNF. Philip Rivers has played well on Mondays as well with a 5-4 record against the spread. The Chargers have been a team that have given Peyton trouble throughout his career; he’s just 3-6 ATS against the Bolts historically. Even before Manning arrived in Denver, Rivers has been merciless against the Broncos, sporting a 8-3-2 ATS record against the division rival.

SOME NOTES:

  • As a home favorite Rivers has gone 27-20 ATS lifetime
  • Coming off of a loss, Manning has gone 27-33-2 ATS
  • When Peyton Manning has been an underdog of 3 points or less, he’s gone 13-2-1 ATS
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