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TCU vs. Colorado State

Current Line: Colorado State -4

Current O/U Line: 142

The TCU Horned Frogs (17-13 SU, 12-13-1 ATS) open up Mountain West tournament play riding a two game losing streak in which they lost a heart breaker on 3/3 to San Diego State in overtime by six.

The Horned Frogs offense this season away from home has had their ups and downs. TCU is averaging 68.6 points per game on the road this season and 55 points per game on a neutral court. On the road this season TCU has shot just 42.6% from the field and 37.3% from beyond the arc. The Horned Frogs will need their only two double digit scorers Hank Thorns (13.4 PPG) and J.R Cadot (11.3 PPG) to step up their game if they plan on pulling the upset in this first round.

The defense played by TCU on the road this season has been next to atrocious. TCU is allowing 77.2 points per game away from home this season with opponents shooting an unbelievable 51.2% from the field against them and 38.5% form beyond the arc.

Colorado State Rams (19-10 SU, 16-10-1 ATS) come into tonight’s contest winning four of their last five in which they have gone 5-0 ATS in. Colorado State is on a lot of peoples list to earn them an at large bid for the tournament. People minds could change if they don’t get out of the first round of the Mountain West tournament though.

The Rams have had some success on both ends of the floor this season in neutral court games. Colorado State is averaging 77 points per game on a neutral court this season but has averaged just 65.7 points per game in true road contests. The Rams have shot 55.8% from the field and 44% from beyond the arc in games played on a neutral court this season. Leading the Rams offense this season is Wes Eikmeier (16.0 PPG) and Dorian Green (13.4 PPG).

The defense that Colorado State has play on the road this season is allowing 73.8 points per game with opponents shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.7% from beyond the arc against them. On a neutral court this season the Rams allowed 55 points per game with opponents shooting 34.7% from the field and 24.4% from beyond the arc against them.

There are no trends for this game that is going to sway my pick one way or the other. I completely understand that Colorado State needs to win this game to make sure their at large bid is intact for them. I am sure Colorado State’s head coach Tim Miles is making it very clear to his team that this victory is needed. We all saw what happens when coach Miles speaks his players listen considering they were down by 15 at half to UNLV on 3/3 and came back to pull out the win after his halftime speech.

Prediction:

TCU 67 Colorado State 75

 

Air Force vs. New Mexico

Current Line: New Mexico -15

Current O/U Line: 124.5

The Air Force Falcons (13-15 SU, 11-11 ATS) enters Mountain West tournament play riding a four game losing streak as they look for redemption on a New Mexico squad that pretty much dominated them the two meetings during the regular season.

Air Force does not possess a very high powered offense. Actually this season the Falcons are next to last in college basketball for field goals attempted per game with just 47.1. On the road this season the Falcons offense averages just 57.2 points per game in which they are shooting 43.3% from the field and 32.5% from beyond the arc. The Falcons are going to be faced with another tough task on the offensive side of the ball tonight against a New Mexico team that held the Falcons to just 42 and 56 points this season. Leading the Falcons offense this season is Michael Lyons (16.0 PPG) and Mike Fitzgerald (10.6 PPG).

If Air Force is going to have any chance of pulling off a huge upset tonight it will have to come on the defensive side of ball.  The Falcons this season are allowing 62.7 points per game with opponents shooting 41.6% from the field and 32.1% from beyond the arc against them. The downside to this Falcons defense is that they have allowed an average of 83.5 points per game this season to New Mexico.

New Mexico Lobos (24-6 SU, 19-8 ATS) enters tonight’s contest winning their last two that included a 30 point win over this very same Air Force team.

The Lobos success this season is coming from both sides of the ball for them. On the offensive side of the ball New Mexico is averaging 72.5 points per game while shooting 45.9% from the field and 38.6% from beyond the arc. On the road the Lobos have averaged 69.4 points per game this in which they shot 45.2% from the field and 37.6% from beyond the arc. The offense this season for the Lobos is led by Drew Gordon (13.2 PPG) who is coming off his season high of 30 against Boise State. Kendall Williams (12.0 PPG) and Tony Snell (10.8 PPG) are the only other double digit scorers on this squad.

New Mexico’s defense has actually been just as good as the offense if not better. The Lobos this season are allowing 58.6 points per game ranking them 12 in the nation for points allowed. Opponents have struggled shooting the ball against this Lobos defense where they are shooting just 37.8% from the field ranking New Mexico 4th in the nation while opponents have only shot 30.4% form beyond the arc.

New Mexico had a very easy time in both meetings with this Air Force squad this season. Could this be a gift getting the Lobos as a favorite of only 15 when they won by 39 and 30 in the two meetings with the Falcons this season?  This is the game that the public will nail because of how bad the Lobos have destroyed the Falcons this season. In all reality this game means more to Air Force then New Mexico. The Lobos are guaranteed their spot in the tournament while Air Force knows the only way they continue their season is with a win tonight. Air Force slows this game down and makes New Mexico play the Falcons style and keeps this game within the number.

Prediction:

Air Force 56 New Mexico 66

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