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San Diego State Aztecs at Baylor Bears

Tuesday, 11/15/11, 2:00 PM EST, TV: ESPN
Opening Point Spread: Baylor -8
Current Betting Line: Baylor -9
Opening Total: 133
Current Total: 133

WagerMinds Game Detail

San Diego State is really up against it from a scheduling standpoint, playing its fourth game in five days after playing three home games against overmatched opponents, including a 89-74 win over the UC Davis Aggies as 19.5-point home favorites.

The Aztecs have been double-digit favorites in all three games, while the ‘over’ has cashed in two of three contests.  Head coach Steve Fisher has his program on track to possibly start 4-0 for the second straight season.

Facing ranked opponents isn’t such a daunting task around these parts, posting an 8-10 in the situation, while the team has won 10 of its last 11 games dating back to last year, with the last loss coming against eventual national champion Connecticut.

Bettors could potentially fall into an underdog trap in playing the Aztecs, considering the team has just nine scholarship players, as they gained notoriety in playing into the Sweet 16 a year ago.

The amount of games in such a short period of time will likely not affect this team as much as it would later in the season, as we are just four games into the year.  It’s also important to note that the team has won 10 consecutive November contests.

Over the past two-plus seasons, the Aztecs are 7-5 ATS as an underdog, while the ‘over’ is 7-6 in that situation.

Baylor is certainly familiar in playing in ESPN’s College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon, posting a 2-0 record in the event.  The Bears will put their 20-game winning streak at the Ferrell Center on the line against non-conference opponents.

Tuesday will be the fourth of a six-game suspension for sophomore Perry Jones III, who was suspended by the NCAA back in March.  He was voted as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year and will likely make his debut two weeks from this contest.

From a handicapping perspective, Baylor is certainly playable when finding out that 17 of its last 18 non-conference home wins have been decided by double digits.  The Bears are also 32-6 in the month of November under head coach Scott Drew.

This matchup will be just the fifth in series history, with all four previous meetings being decided by 10 points or more.  Baylor came away with a 76-62 win in the NIT semifinals as one-point favorites in the last affair on March 31, 2009.

Don’t go overboard in playing the Bears due to their 8-8 ATS mark as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

Pick: 

Baylor Bears -9

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