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After a 20 game win streak, the Spurs have found themselves in a tight spot losing 3 straight, heading back to Oklahoma City.  The current line for the game is Thunder -4.5, but the odds aren’t unobtainable.  Thanks to a handy chart from MustGetSports, we can see the progression of teams heading into game six since the inception of the playoffs:

Over 93 games, the favored home team has won 50 games (a 53.76% win percentage).  This means that according to history the Spurs playing on the road down 2-3 have a 46.24% chance of winning game 6 outright.  And what about a potential game 7?  Throughout history the home team has won game seven a whopping 82.14% of the time.

  • 46.24% – Historical Probability of Away Team (down 2-3) winning game 6 on the road
  • 82.14% – Historical Probability of Home Team winning game 7

If you multiply these historic probabilities the Spurs would have a 37.98% chance to win the series.  So what are the implied probabilities of the current betting lines (based off of current 5Dimes lines)?

  • Spurs +175 to win game 6 = 36.36% – Implied Probability of Spurs Winning Game 6
  • Spurs +285 to win the series = 27.95% – Implied Probability of Spurs Winning The Series

So if you believe in the Spurs repeating history, there could be some value based on historical data in both the game 6 and series lines.  That is if you think the Spurs can stop the rolling Thunder.

Don’t forget to make your official selections today:


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