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Game 1 of the NBA Finals is in the books.  After a rough first half, team Westbrook/Durant outplayed team James/Wade thanks in part to a stingy OKC defense.  The line for tonight’s game 2 is Thunder -5.5 with odds of -250 to win outright.  While it makes sense given the second half performance by the Thunder, just how does it stack up to historical game 2′s?  Actually quite well.   Coming into the 2012 playoffs, those team that were 1-0 playing game 2 at home won a whopping 73/70% of the time:

Chart Courtesy of MustGetSports.com

The odds of -250 show an implied win probability of 71.43%, quite close to the historical numbers given.  So it you tend to trust historical data and trends, there’s not much value to be had.

Surprisingly, the lines from game 3 have been released at 5Dimes (in the Props section) and the Heat are 3.5 point favorites.  The odds and historical data give the Thunder a 71-73% chance to take game 2, so what has happened in game 3 when the home team is 0-2 (and favored)?  Historically they’ve won 60% of the time.  A line of -3.5 would roughly translate to -190 which would give the Heat an implied winning percentage of 65.52%.  So if you are big on the Thunder and lean heavily on historical data, their may be a small bit of value in a Game 3 0-2 scenario.

Photo courtesy of: Larry W. Smith/European Pressphoto Agency


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