Game 1 of the NBA Finals is in the books. ¬†After a rough first half, team Westbrook/Durant outplayed team James/Wade thanks in part to a stingy OKC defense. ¬†The line for tonight’s game 2 is Thunder -5.5 with odds of -250 to win outright. ¬†While it makes sense given the second half performance by the Thunder, just how does it stack up to historical game 2′s? ¬†Actually quite well. ¬† Coming into the 2012 playoffs, those team that were 1-0 playing game 2 at home won a whopping 73/70% of the time:
The odds of -250 show an implied win probability of 71.43%, quite close to the historical numbers given. ¬†So it you tend to trust historical data and trends, there’s not much value to be had.
Surprisingly, the lines from game 3 have been released at 5Dimes (in the Props section) and the Heat are 3.5 point¬†favorites. ¬†The odds and historical data give the Thunder a 71-73% chance to take game 2, so what has happened in game 3 when the home team is 0-2 (and favored)? ¬†Historically they’ve won 60% of the time. ¬†A line of -3.5 would roughly translate to -190 which would give the Heat an implied winning percentage of 65.52%. ¬†So if you are big on the Thunder and lean heavily on historical data, their may be a small bit of value in a Game 3 0-2 scenario.
Photo courtesy of:¬†Larry W. Smith/European Pressphoto Agency