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Game 1 of the 2012 NBA Playoffs didn’t work out as planned for the Boston Celtics.  With under one minute remaining, a loose ball call set off the “Magnificent Weirdo” Rajon Rondo who chest bumped an official:

While the bump was quite light, any contact with an NBA official is bad contact.  So says the NBA rules:


Any player or coach guilty of intentional physical contact with an official shall automatically be suspended without pay for one game. (Cont): A fine and/or longer period of suspension willresult if circumstances so dictate.

So look for Rondo to get suspended for game 2.  But what does that mean for bettors?

Game 1 opened in Atlanta with the Hawks favored by a point-and-a-half and bet down to the Hawks -1 before game-time.  Look for a Rondo-less Celtics to be getting 3.5 or 4 when the line opens.  Game 1 saw the O/U of 179 fall miserably short as only 157 points were scored between the two teams.  The low score + the loss of Rondo should see the O/U open up even lower, close to 177.5.  But should that be the case?  Here’s the game log without Rondo this year:

Date Home/Away BOS OPP W/L BOS Line Cover/Not Cover O/U Line Over/Under
1/20/2012 H 71 79 L -6 N 183 U
1/22/2012 A 100 94 W -4.5 C 180 O
1/23/2012 H 87 56 W 4.5 C 177 U
1/26/2012 A 91 83 W 10 C 173.5 O
1/27/2012 H 94 87 W 4 C 175 O
1/29/2012 H 87 88 L -6.5 N 181 U
1/31/2012 A 93 90 W -3.5 N 178 O
2/1/2012 H 100 64 W -9 C 172 U
2/20/2012 A 73 89 L 9.5 N 176 U
2/22/2012 A 104 119 L 8.5 N 186.5 O
4/18/2012 H 102 98 W -4.5 N 178 O
4/20/2012 A 92 97 L -10.5 C 179.5 O
4/24/2012 H 78 66 W -7 C 181 U

Overall w/o Rondo:  8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS, 7-6 Over/Under

Away w/o Rondo: 3-3 SU  3-3 ATS  5-1 Over/Under

When playing away sans-Rondo, the Celtics have gone over 5 of 6 games by an average of 8.6 points per game.  This stands out because with Rondo, the Celtics have goin the other way going 11-17 on the season over/unders.  So while the O/U line has been getting bet down without Rondo, the play may be on the opposite side.  If the line opens at or under 177.5 (and Rondo is suspended) we’d lean over.

Make sure to make your fantasy bet on the game by shooting over to our NBA Odds page.



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