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Baseball starts tonight as the Cards face off against the new-look Marlins.  But, before the first pitch is thrown, we thought we’d take a look at the 6 best regular season win total bets according to the smart stat geeks at Baseball Prospectus.

Each year, they use their quantitive analysis to predict the overall record and the percentage likelihood of making the playoffs for each and every team. Last year, they had the highest projected win total for the NL West winning Diamondbacks of any prognosticator we track. They  were down on the Reds (Vegas line was 87, BP  projected 81 and Reds finished with 79) and were way down on  the Houston Astros (Vegas line was 73.5, BP projected 68 and Astros finished with an ML worst 56 wins.)

We scoured sportsbooks to find the most favorable season total wins odds and compared them to Baseball Prospectus’ numbers to help show you where some value may lie.  Here are the best bests ranked by win differential from BP:

6) New York Mets

BP’s Simulated Wins: 77

Sportsbook Win Total: 72.5

Differential:  OVER by 4.5 wins (+101)

Sportsbook: BetOnline


5) St. Louis Cardinals

BP’s Simulated Wins: 90.9

Sportsbook Win Total: 85.5

Differential:  OVER by 5.4 wins (-115)

Sportsbook: Bovada


4) Philadelphia Phillies

BP’s Simulated Wins: 86.9

Sportsbook Win Total: 92.5

Differential:  UNDER by 5.6 wins (-110)

Sportsbook: BetOnline


3) San Diego Padres

BP’s Simulated Wins: 79.4

Sportsbook Win Total: 73.5

Differential:  OVER by 5.9 wins (-120)

Sportsbook: 5Dimes


2) Toronto Blue Jays

BP’s Simulated Wins: 75.9

Sportsbook Win Total: 82.5

Differential:  UNDER by 6.6 wins (-110)

Sportsbook: 5Dimes


1) Kansas City Royals

BP’s Simulated Wins: 68.2

Sportsbook Win Total: 76.5

Differential:  UNDER by 8.3 wins  (+155)

Sportsbook: BetOnline

For an alternate view,don’t miss BeyondTheBets analysis of Sports Illustrated’s projections for the most value according to SI.  Interestingly enough, SI’s best bet is the over on the Royals while Baseball Prospectus’s best bet is the under on the Royals - so proceed with caution.

For more information, see Baseball Prospectus.

2 Responses to “The Best 6 MLB Total Wins Plays (According To Baseball Prospectus Odds)”

  1. Brett

    I ran a similar analysis on My analysis agrees with your Royals pick, but not the others. My favorite picks are Pirates under 73.5, Twins under 72.5, and Dodgers under 81.


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