Marlins-Explosion
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Thanks to Tuesday’s blockbuster trade, the Blue Jays are now proud owners of Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle.  The Marlins, on the other hand, will be filling those positions with Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria and a boatload of additional salary space. This trade is getting crushed in the media, but just how does this affect the odds?

Toronto Blue Jays

Pre-Trade Odds to Win World Series: 35 to 1 

  • Implied probability of winning the World Series -> 2.76%

Post-Trade Odds to Win World Series: 14 to 1

  • Implied probability of winning the World Series -> 6.67%

This means that sports books (and the betting market) have increased the implied probability percentage  141.66% since the trade.

Miami Marlins

Pre-Trade Odds to Win World Series: 40 to 1 

  • Implied probability of winning the World Series -> 2.44%

Post-Trade Odds to Win World Series: 100 to 1

  • Implied probability of winning the World Series -> 0.99%

This means that the likelihood that the Marlins win the World Series has dropped  59.43% since the trade.

Not surprisingly, the Houston Astros have even worse odds than the Marlins at 200/1 (0.50% implied probability). The Detroit Tigers are the favorite to win the World Series at 15/2 (11.76% implied probability.)

All odds are courtesy of Bovada.

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