July 9th marks the day where sports fans collectively grab their remotes, hit mute and enjoy watching the long ball in dead silence.  It’s the 2012 Home Run Derby.  While Chris Berman tries to puncture our cranium with his arsenal of  “Backbackbackbaclbaclbackback” “Aaaaaaaaaannnnnndddddd” and “Yikes!” you can place bets on who will emerge with the home run crown.

This year’s home run derby features a young cast including two past winners in Robinson Cano (2011) and Prince Fielder (2009).

TheGreek released the odds and have Giancarlo Stanton (+285) as the favorite with Jose Bautista (+300) right on his tail.  The worst odds belong to Matt Kemp (+650), Carlos Beltran (+600) and Carlos Gonzalez (+600).  Last year’s champ Robinson Cano weighs in right in the middle of the pack at +450.

Here’s the full list:

Carlos Beltran (+600)

2012 Home Runs: 20

2011 Home Runs:

2011 Home Run Derby: Did Not Participate

Carlos Gonzalez (+600)

2012 Home Runs: 17

2011 Home Runs: 26

2011 Home Run Derby: Did Not Participate

Giancarlo Stanton (+285)

2012 Home Runs: 19

2011 Home Runs: 34

2011 Home Run Derby: Did Not Participate

Jose Bautista (+300)

2012 Home Runs: 27

2011 Home Runs: 43

2011 Home Run Derby: Exited 1st Round

Mark Trumbo (+400)

2012 Home Runs: 20

2011 Home Runs: 29

2011 Home Run Derby: Did Not Participate

Matt Kemp (+650)

2012 Home Runs: 12

2011 Home Runs: 39

2011 Home Run Derby: Exited 1st Round

Prince Fielder (+500)

2012 Home Runs: 12

2011 Home Runs: 38

2011 Home Run Derby:  Exited 2nd Round

Robinson Cano (+450)

2012 Home Runs: 20

2011 Home Runs: 28

2011 Home Run Derby:  Won Home Run Derby

While Prince Fielder did win in 2009, he saw a first round exit last year and has only swatted 12 HR’s this season, tied for 45th most.  Stanton is favored at+285, but the value is low with him having an implied probability of 25.97%.  Matt Kemp deservedly hast he worst odds as he is currently rehabbing an injury in the minors and had an atrocious showing last year exiting in the first round with just 2 homers.  Current home run leader Jose Bautista didn’t impress either last year derby, hitting just 4 out of the park and leaving in the first round.

One of the more intriguing plays is Angels right fielder Mark Trumbo.  The 6’4″ 220 pounder 26 year old has hit a homerun every 7.51  at-bats this year.  Trumbo has been mashing lately and could have the endurance to outlast others if he makes it past the second round.  At 4-to-1 odds, that’s not a bad deal.