Mega Millions mania is sweeping the nation. Tonight’s jackpot is now $640 million and stores across the country are reporting record turnout as everyone lines up for their chance at life-changing money.
This morning, 5Dimes offered a line on whether someone would win the Mega Millions drawing. The line: yes (-600), no (+400).¬†Since so many tickets were sold today, the odds that someone would win the jackpot have increased. As a result, 5Dimes has moved the line. Now, the yes is (-920) and the no is (+550).
Well, the AP is reporting that, based on ticket sales, there is now just a 6% chance that no one wins the jackpot.
The 5Dimes odds imply that there is a 90% chance that someone will win. But the AP’s 6% report implies, obviously, that there is a 94% chance that someone will win.
So, if you believe the AP report, betting the yes at (-925) is a positive expected value bet. If you’re going to make the bet, you better hurry. The drawing is at 11pm Eastern time so that line will likely be off the board shortly.