DavidFrohardtLane
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He won $75,000 when he won the 2011 Cantor Football Handicapping Contest by going 54-32-4 ATS.

It turns out that was just an appetizer.

Today, David Frohardt-Lane, a Chicago-based trader, won the 2013 LVH SuperContest and the grand prize of $542,850. And, since his SuperContest ATS win rate is over 67%, he’ll win a $15,000 bonus for a total contest haul of $557,850 (note: Frohardt-Lane’s ATS win percentage will exceed 67% even if he loses with his final pick, the Eagles -6.5).

Frohardt-Lane isn’t just some recreational handicapper who got lucky. He has an undergraduate degree in mathematics from Carleton College and a graduate degree in statistics from University of Chicago and he’s started consulting with a MLB team.  This summer, he gave a presentation at The Program in Mathematics for Young Scientists (PROMYS). The topic? Predictive modeling in sports statistics, of course.

The abstract from Frohardt-Lane’s presentation (emphasis added):

Abstract: In this talk, I will talk about the process of building a prediction model. The model in question will be designed predict the outcomes of NFL games, using only box score statistics in previous games, and built with the intention of identifying profitable wagering opportunities. The focus of the talk will be on how to extract as much information as possible from a limited data set. This should be easy to follow; I won’t be assuming prior familiarity with statistics or football.

So, between winning the Cantor contest and the LVH SuperContest, it’s clear Mr. Frohardt-Lane’s fondness for math has been profitable.

Frohardt-Lane came into the final Sunday in second place, trailing the leader by just a half point. With his final 5 selections, he took Green Bay  (+4.5), Cincinnati (-6), San Francisco (-1), Indianapolis (-11.5) and Philadelphia (-6.5). His San Francisco and Philadelphia picks were the opposite of those of the leader (who had Dallas and Arizona). In the early games, Frohardt-Lane went 2-0 as the Colts covered handily and the Bengals held on against the Ravens.

And then came the 49ers game. Frohardt-Lane had San Francisco while the leader, EBN OZN, had Arizona. While San Francisco built a a first half lead, the Cardinals came back and tied the game up with less than 2 minutes remaining. If Arizona won, EBN OZN had the chance to win the contest if the Cowboys covered. But, with :02 left on the clock, Phil Dawson drilled a 40 yard field goal giving the 49ers the win and giving Frohardt-Lane a SuperContest victory.

The 36 year old had two entries in this year’s SuperContest for a total entry fee of $3,000. With his total winnings of $557,850, he made a 186X return on his investment. Not bad for a 4 month contest.

With the difference between first and second place a whopping $325,710, surely Frohardt-Lane set up shop in a Vegas sports book today so he could make big hedge bets, right? Nope. Believe it or not, he spent the day at his brother-in-law’s wedding reception. According to him, he was “checking his cell phone constantly” and, fortunately, they turned the television to the 49ers game so he did get to see the game-winning field goal.

Now, he’s buying shots for everyone at the wedding.

 

 

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