We were surprised that no online sports book was offering an over/under on the winning score for this year’s U.S. Open. So we tweeted Dave Mason from BetOnline.
And guess what?¬†He responded. Right away.
Better yet, he put up a line nearly instantaneously.
Mason is always responsive and a master marketer (remember his Birdman prop bets from the Super Bowl?) and we thank him for being so responsive to this request. Now let’s analyze this line.
The opening line on the total winning score at this year’s Open is 280.
In the Tiger Woods era (beginning in 2000), 7 of the 12 Opens have had a winning score lower than 280, 4 had ¬†score higher than 280 and 1 (2005, Pinehurt) finished at 280 exactly. But while sub-280 was the winning score in a majority of the past dozen U.S. Open championships, 4 of the past 6 have sailed over 280. Beginning in 2006, the winning scores have been 285, 285, 283, 276, 284 ¬†and, last year, 268.
Now, Olympic Club has hosted 4 U.S. Opens. The winning scores: 280, 277, 278 and 287. As you can see, 280 is a pretty solid line.
Since posting the 280 line, BetOnline has received some betting action on the under which has driven the total down to 279.5.
While Olympic is a difficult course and the USGA is certainly going to try to correct for last year’s winning score of 16 under, the course is absolutely perfect condition. And the weather is perfect. So, sadly, it’s hard to find a lot of value in the over or under at either 279.5 or 280.