This is the week 5 installment of our foray into the LVH Supercontest using our own proprietary, predictive models. We compile an enormous amount of data, clean it up and feed it into our super computer. Then we trust and rely on the results, whether we like them or not.  In Week 3 we had a terrible performance, but charged back last week in a dominant fashion. Our faith in our model was a bit shaken, but last week the wins weren’t even close. The Chargers (+1) not only won straight up, but did so by 17, the Broncos covered by 24.5, the Texans by 12 and the 49ers by 30. Solid.

We now stand at a respectable 12-8-0 tied for 95th place (out of 745) along with 53 other players. We’ll take it.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

We’re planning on keeping it up this week with the following plays (all of which have more than a 3-point spread:

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

While the Ravens are off to a 3-1 start, they’ve been mediocre against the spread; 2-2 on the year. The Chiefs (+5) may be the worst football team in the entire NFL and our model isn’t buying that this game will stay close.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Houston Texans at New York Jets

While many teams step up under the NFL lights, our model is quite skeptical. Maybe it’s because in 118 Monday night games where we’ve seen home dogs, they’ve failed to cover 53.4% of the time. Or maybe because it sees Mark Sanchez is the starter. Either way, the machine says to lay the points as the Texans will roll over the hot mess that is the New York Jets.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are 0-4. They CAN’T go 0-5 – right? Not at home on Sunday night with Drew Brees facing his former team about to break Unitas’s record and Sean Payton in the crowd? It’s going to be a blowout, it has to be, right?. Well the machine likes the Chargers who’ve fraudulently made their way to a 3-1 record with wins over the Raiders, Titans, and the Chiefs. Damn you model, damn you.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers looked dominant against the AFC East’s New York Jets last week in a 34-0 blowout. The Bills had a solid half of football before getting crushed by Tom Brady and the Pats. This week the model thinks the trend of Buffalo beatdowns will continue and is willing to lay 9.5 on it. Note: This play has no confidence, but according to the rules of the SuperContest 5 games must be chosen each week.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings

Jake Locker got crushed last week which actually lead to something surprising: A Titans running game. With Matt Hasselbeck in the game for the Titans Chris Johnson’s carries skyrocketed along with his production. Johnson went from 11 carries for 4 yards in week 1 to 8 for 17 in week 2 to 14 for 24 in week 3 then a whopping 25 for 141 last week against Houston. The model slightly likes the Titans in this one, let’s hope their special teams can figure out how to tackle. Note: This play has no confidence, but according to the rules of the SuperContest 5 games must be chosen each week.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

JUST MISSED THE CUT

While our model like the 5 above plays the most, we had the following plays that the machine leaned towards:

• Falcons -3
• Colts +7
• Giants -8.5
• Dolphins +3
• Carolina -3

Make sure to check back next week for a week 5 recap and our week 6 plays. Also be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.