SuperContest-Graphic-Week-8
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Each week we use our NFL predictive model to help pick and choose games against the spread for the LVH SuperContest. Each week 5 games must be chosen against the spread as we compete against 745 other teams to see who’s the best NFL bettor. Each week we take the model’s most confident play (measured by a 5 brain scale) and play them no matter how much we like or hate the pick.

It seems like it was years ago now that we were 12-8 and in the hunt. Over the past two weeks our model has been a putrid 2-8. We are now 15-20, a miserable 43% win percentage.

We need a miracle  5-0 week to help us kickstart our model’s quest back to to respectability.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

 Here’s a look how our model performed in week 7:

  • 5 Brain Confidence: n/a (Overall: 0-2-0, 0% win pct)
  • 4 Brain Confidence: n/a (Overall: 1-2-0, 33% win pct)
  • 3 Brain Confidence: 0-1-0 (Overall: 3-4-0, 43% win pct)
  • 2 Brain Confidence: 0-2-0 (Overall: 4-6-0, 40% win pct)
  • 1 Brain Confidence: 1-1-0 (Overall: 2-4-0,33% win pct)
  • 0 Brain Confidence: n/a (Overall: 1-2-0, 33% win pct)
  • Just Missed The Cut Plays: 1-3-1 (Overall: 17-12-2, 59% win pct)
Here is our selection of the model’s week 8 plays:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers

One thing we’ve learned this year is that our model isn’t afraid of double digit favorites. With Henne at the helm and the Jags heading North, the model is high on the injury-laden Pack this week.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

 

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys running game is a mess. The Giants are finally getting healthy. The model not only predicts that the Couboys won’t be sweeping the Giants this year but that the Giants will cover on the road.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles

We get it. Andy Reid is good coming off of a bye. Great. Our model isn’t buying it this year and likes Matty Ice and the Falcons in Philly. Note: Our model is always quite high on the Falcons and this line has moved from +2.5 in the SuperContest to +3 at many books.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

The Bears looked dominant last week against the Lions, but failed to cover thanks in part to a vicious hit by Ndamukong Suh. The Panthers are in desperate need of a win, but our model likes the Bears to win and cover this week.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

 

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions

The ‘Hawks have been surprisingly good this year, and a surprisingly tense team to bet on. At the beginning of the year the Cantor early lines had the Lions -6.5. The LVH SuperContest line is Detroit -2 and the machine thinks that the Lions will cover.

Play

Model Confidence Level

Make Your Pick

JUST MISSED THE CUT

While our model like the 5 above plays the most, the machine also leans towards:

  • Jets:  -2
  • Redskins: +4.5
  • 49ers: -6.5
  • Chargers: -2.5

Make sure to check back next week for a week 8 recap and our week 9 plays. Also be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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