We’ve covered Right Angle Sports before. They are one of the very few trustworthy pick-selling outfits with a very long track record of delivering remarkable results.
During the 2009 college football season, RAS hit at 67.8% and won 22.1 units. In 2010, their college football plays hit at 59.3% and netted 10.55 units. And last year, RAS successfully picked 64% ATS and generated 19.3 units of profit.
This season, we’ve had the opportunity to watch RAS football picks and track the release of RAS plays and how those releases impact lines. The unavoidable conclusion: the impact RAS has on college football lines is immediate and profound.
In week 1, RAS had 5 releases. They went 3-2. On average, they beat the closing line by 3.4 points. In week 2, RAS released 8 plays. They beat the closing line by an average of 2.56 points and went 6-2 on the week.
In week 3, RAS issued 11 recommended plays. They beat the closing line by an average of 2.9 points but went just 4-7 on the week for a rare losing week. In week 4, there were 10 RAS plays. RAS went just 5-5 but again beat the closing line by an average of 2.75 points.
At this point in the season, RAS has issued 34 plays. They went 18-16 and they beat the line on a remarkable 31 of those 34 plays (and 2 other plays closed right at the RAS recommended line). In just 1 of the first 34 RAS plays did the line close in the opposite direction of what RAS played. Interestingly, RAS lost that game because they got the worst of the number. They recommended NC State (-4) vs. UConn and the line closed at (-3). NC State won by 3.
RAS is now 30-22 this season and +5.25 units. They’re 16-10 on totals and 14-12 on sides. In total, they’ve beaten the closing line by an average of 2.79 points. But here’s the thing about RAS and beating the closing line: it’s become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
RAS is almost certainly the most well-respected college (football and basketball) handicapping service. It’s clear a lot of people find out about their releases. And it’s clear that oddsmakers at nearly every shop get their releases. And, as a result of their long and impressive track record, the market reacts immediately to their moves.
In other words, RAS, by virtue of their reputation, moves the line and, as a result, always beats the line.
Perhaps the most remarkable element of the RAS process is how quickly the market reacts to their plays. Last week, RAS released plays on September 27th around 2:05 pm. The first play was Arizona State vs. Cal over 54. We tracked this line at 5 offshore books as the play was released by RAS. Within 30 seconds, ¬†2 of the books had pulled that game off the board. It stayed down for a couple minutes until it re-opened with an adjusted line: 57. Two other books adjusted the line within seconds and had bumped the total to 56. Then it drifted up to 57. And was at 58 within 5 minutes. The final book was slow. It took them all of 3 minutes to adjust the total after RAS released the over. But when they did, they moved it up to 57.
If you tried to get a bet in at the RAS number, you had to be quick. Really, really quick. In almost all cases, you’re probably going to get a slightly worse number than what RAS releases. To their credit, RAS acknowledges this on their website and gives customers a guide for how to try to beat¬†the incredibly fast line movement. The RAS tips don’t always work, mind you, but at least RAS is upfront with customers about some of the challenges of profiting from RAS plays.
This immediate and swift line reaction to RAS plays happens all the time. We’ve tracked every play they’ve released this year at the moment they released them. And at virtually every single sports book we monitored, the line moves are lightning fast. The big books, the pay per head shops, all of them.
We’ll be tracking RAS picks (and how the market reacts to their picks) for the rest of their college football service and we’ll be providing another report soon.