Every year Phil Steele puts out a College Football preview, one that is self-proclaimed to be the accurate college football magazine for the past 14 years. Steele typically has unique, contrarian takes and this year is no different. The magazine is absolutely worth the read, and can be found on Amazon or Steele’s website (warning – font & color overload).

We wanted to take some of Steele’s data and parlay the numbers with Vegas odds (courtesy of 5Dimes) to try and extract and data that would be valuable in sports betting. If you believe in Steele’s analysis there is a good deal of value to be had in college football divisional futures betting. Each division (or conference if no divisions exist) shows the bookmaker odds accompanied by the rank that Steele gives the team in that division.

ACC Atlantic Division

Steele as high as one can be this year on the Seminoles – placing them atop the best teams rankings.  Of course this means he has them coming out of the Atlantic:

ACC Coastal Division

In Fedora Phil Trusts.  The Coastal division features a bit of a disagreement between Steele and bookmakers when it comes to the Tar Heels. Books have the ‘Heels at 9/2 to win the division.  Steele has the Tar Heels and first year coach Larry Fedora listed as the best team.  Phil thinks there’s some value to be had – do you?

Big East

The beleaguered Big East is up for grabs this year – at least according to bookmakers.  The best odds belong to Louisville at +225 but 4 other teams have better than 6-t-1 odds to win it.  Steele actually has a different team at the top of the list, USF who is +375 to win it:

Big Ten Legends

The Legends division features a very tough top 3 in Michigan, Michigan St and Nebraska.  Bookmakers have Denard Robinson and the Wolverines at +115 to win it, however Steele likes Nebraska.  The Cornhuskers are a bit of an underdog at +260 and may provide some value:

Big Ten Leaders

Thanks to the equipment/memorabilia for tattoo scandal the Urban Meyer led Buckeyes are not BCS eligible in 2012. Two separate sets of odds exist – one with the Buckeyes, and one that discounts the existence of the Buckeyes. Seeing that Steele when ahead and ranked all teams (Ohio State included) we went ahead and compared all 6 as well. Steele isn’t high on the Paterno-less Nittany Lions, placing them at 5th in the division below Illinois and Purdue. Both the Buckeyes and the Badgers are atop Steele’s list as best teams in the division:

Note: Odds without counting Ohio State are: (Wisconsin -200, Penn State +400, Illinois +525, Purdue +1200, Indianian +2000)

Big 12

The Sooners are the clear-cut favorite in the Big 12 this year after finishing a disappointing 4th in the standings last year. Steele agrees with the bookmakers for most of the teams, but likes last years top team, Oklahoma State, more than oddsmakers do. Steele has them pegged as the 3rd best team, but oddsmakers have them 4th at 8-to-1 odds:

Pac 12 North

This year’s Andrew Luck-less division has a clear cut favorite, the Oregon Ducks. The argument for the 2nd best team gets cloudy though. Bookmakers like Washington (#5 according to Steele) while Steele likes Stanford (#4 according to bookmakers). If you think that the Ducks will have their wings clipped this year, Stanford at 9-to-1 may provide some value:

Pac 12 South

The South has the most lopsided favorite according to bookmakers with USC as 1-to-6 favs. Steele agrees with bookmakers (and the entire nation) as to the top team in the South. Not too much value here:

SEC East

The top pack in the SEC (Georgia, South Carolina & Florida) is quite crowded. Bookmakers like Georgia the most at +155, but have SC and Florida close behind at +240 and +310 respectively. Steele has two teams at the top of his list, Florida and Georgia. Two teams are tied for Steele’s 3rd place spot, Tennessee and South Carolina. If looking for Steele to show you the value, it is clearly on the Gators at +310 and the Vols at +1050:

SEC West

Phil Steele just seems to have a tough time determining the singular top team in any SEC division. LSU and Alabama rank #1 for Steele and are also tied at +145 by bookmakers:

For full data, don’t forget to purchase Phil Steele’s 2012 College Preview from Amazon or Steele’s website. The mag is chock full of info and a good bit of previews for the upcoming season.