SuperContest-Graphic-Week-14
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We’ve created a model that helps us pick games against the spread for the LVH SuperContest every week. Whether we like the picks or not, we submit them each week and share them with you. Last week we went a disappointing 2-3 with losses coming from the 49ers, Patriots and Bears. We are now 36-29 on the season for a 55.38% win rate.

The most frustrating game of the week was the Pats/Dolphins game. We thought we had the Patriots (-7.5)  game in the bag after Gostkowski kicked a field goal to put them up by ten. However, the Dolphins then drive down the field with a few ticks remaining. After a nice 28 yard pickup, the Dolphins are on the 24 threatening to put it in the endzoe. After one crack at at touchdown pass Joe Philbin decides kick a field goal … on second down.  The Dolphins lose by 7 and cover the spread. Painful.

LAST WEEK’S RESULTS:

 Here’s a look how our model performed in week 13:

  • 5 Brain Confidence: n/a (Overall: 0-2-0, 0% win pct)
  • 4 Brain Confidence: 1-0-0 (Overall: 8-2-0, 80% win pct)
  • 3 Brain Confidence: 0-1-0 (Overall: 9-8-0, 52.9% win pct)
  • 2 Brain Confidence: 1-1-0 (Overall: 10-10-0, 50% win pct)
  • 1 Brain Confidence: 0-1-0 (Overall: 4-5-0, 44.4% win pct)
  • 0 Brain Confidence: n/a (Overall: 1-2-0, 33% win pct)
  • Just Missed The Cut Plays: 1-2 (Overall: 28-27-2, 50.9% win pct)

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

PLAY

MODEL CONFIDENCE LEVEL

MAKE YOUR PICK

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles are a downright mess while the Bucs are the best in the league ATS (8-2-2). When Cantor released lines earlier this summer, the game was set at the Eagles -5.5. That 13 point shift illustrates just how bad the Eagles have become.. Even laying the 7.5 our model likes the Bucs.

PLAY

MODEL CONFIDENCE LEVEL

MAKE YOUR PICK

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals

The Cowboys: They have DeMarco Murray back, Dez Bryant looks healthy and they are coming off a 5 point win over Philly. The Bengals: They’re simply on fire. 4 straight wins (one over the world champion Giants) while holding each team under 14 points. The model is riding the hotter hand. Benglas -3.

PLAY

MODEL CONFIDENCE LEVEL

MAKE YOUR PICK

2 brain

Houston Texans at New England Patriots

Our machine has been high on both the Texans and the Pats this year, but it gives the edge to the home team laying 3.

PLAY

MODEL CONFIDENCE LEVEL

MAKE YOUR PICK

 

Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins

Last week RG3 propelled us to our final (and much needed) win. This week our model is going a different direction. At the beginning of the season Cantor has this line at Ravens -3.5. However the Ravens are now getting 2.5 points despite their 9-3 record. The model isn’t buying that big of an adjustment and likes the Ravens. It should be noted that the confidence is at the lowest level for this pick, but the LVH requires 5 plays.

PLAY

MODEL CONFIDENCE LEVEL

MAKE YOUR PICK

JUST MISSED THE CUT

While our model like the 5 above plays the most, the machine also leans towards:

  • Bears: -3
  • Browns: -6.5

Make sure to check back next week for a week 14 recap and our week 15 plays. Also be sure to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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