A little over 7 years ago, billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban wrote a blog post on his personal blog titled ‘My New Hedge Fund.’ The blog post wasn’t outlining plans for another me-too stock trading billionaire hedge fund. No, Cuban used his blog to suggest, somewhat radically, that he wanted to launch a sports gambling hedge… Read more »
NFL: How Close Does the Point Spread Come to Predicting the Final Score?
You hear it over and over again. A game with a 9.5 point spread finishes 27-17 as the winning team kicks a last minute field goal to cover the spread. Instantly, you’ll hear exclamations “How good is Vegas? 9.5 point line and it’s a 10 point game. Boy, they’re amazing.” Well, not so fast. We… Read more »
What's the Difference Between a Handicapper and a Bookmaker?
The difference between a handicapper and a bookmaker, conveyed as a mathematical expression, is -110. That’s right – the primary difference between the guy behind the counter and the guy in front of the counter is that the guy behind the counter is taking $100 bets and only has to pay a winner $91. Put… Read more »
How Cantor Gaming Lost $27 Million in 2010
Update: On May 25, 2012, Cantor Entertainment withdrew its S1 filing to go public. The stated reason: Cantor intends to submit a new S1 registration at a “later date” under the new JOBS Act. This new law allows companies to file for public offerings while keeping more key business information confidential. Cantor is the first… Read more »
NFL Teams Need A Timeout Coach
NFL coaches have big jobs. Establish a game plan. Motivate the team. Dish out equal parts discipline and inspiration. There’s a lot to do so it’s not surprising that these coaches reportedly work 16-18 hours a day during the season. No matter how hard they work, however, they can’t quite seem to figure out when… Read more »
Why Baltimore -3 Is My Biggest Bet of the Year (so far)
Jim Harbaugh has captured the imagination of NFL fans everywhere. He has the 49ers at 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. He beat the Eagles in Philadelphia and the Lions in Detroit. And then beat up Jim Schwartz during the post-game handshake. Really, what’s not to love about Harbaugh and the 49ers? Well, nothing. They’ve had… Read more »
Wanna Bet on Green Bay to Win the Super Bowl? Don't Do It Now
Here’s the thing about betting on sports futures – you need to think about like the stock market. You want to buy low (when teams are undervalued) and sell high (when the market overvalues a team). It’s very hard to do, frankly, which is why so many individual investors underperform the stock market. When things… Read more »
How Often Do NFL Underdogs Win Outright? A Historical Analysis by Spread Ranges
There seems to be a growing belief that if you’re going to bet on an underdog in the NFL, you should bet them on the money line. Of course, like many growing beliefs, this one is rooted in very recent evidence; over the past 3 weeks, 23 of the 27 NFL underdogs that have covered… Read more »
Ken Pomeroy Thinks You Can’t Win Betting the NFL. He’s Kinda Right, Mostly Not
Ken Pomeroy is the most famous meteorologist in sports handicapping. He’s a stats geek with a graduate degree in atmospheric science. His statistics work on college basketball is well-respected and deservedly so and it’s led to profile pieces in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. But today he generated some buzz when… Read more »
Week 9 Hilton SuperContest Lines
The Las Vegas Hilton has released lines for Week 9 of the Hilton SuperContest. The two leaders of the contest – Iced  Tea and Feral Child – have 30 points out of a possible 40. That’s a 75% point rate and no small feat. The top 20 get paid and, as of today, you’d need… Read more »
